NICHOLAS Stern, in his most recent and perhaps most definitive work, The Growth Story of the 21st Century: The Economics and Opportunity of Climate Action, has decisively shifted the global discourse from a focus on the “costs” of mitigation to the “opportunity” of an entirely new economic paradigm.
Stern revisits the landscape he first mapped in 2006, concluding that while the environmental crisis is far more severe than he initially feared, the economic case for action has fundamentally shifted from a “cost-benefit” exercise to the most compelling pro-growth strategy of our time.
It is a blueprint for a structural transformation where climate action is recognised as the only viable pro-growth strategy for the modern age. Stern’s central argument is that the old perceived trade-off between economic development and environmental protection is a false, outdated dilemma. In the new growth story, investment in physical, human and natural capital is not a burden on the treasury but a driver of efficiency, innovation and, most importantly, large-scale job creation.
The relevance of this argument to Pakistan cannot be overstated, particularly in light of the World Bank President Ajay Banga’s recent conclusion when he visited Islamabad this month. Banga’s “North Star” for Pakistan is the creation of 30 million jobs over the next decade, a target that reflects our demographic reality and the pressing need to convert a youth bulge into a dividend rather than a source of political instability and waves of outward migration.
This mission aligns seamlessly with Stern’s evidence-based optimism. Stern points to countries like China, India and Vietnam, where the shift to renewables and climate-smart infrastructure has already begun to pay dividends in employment.
The “new economic geography” of China — the global laboratory for green job creation — is where Stern’s evidence for this transformation is rooted. By 2025, clean energy sectors — driven by e-vehicles, lithium batteries and solar — were contributing more than 11 per cent to China’s GDP and were employing nearly 7.5m people.
The success that China has seen stems from treating an “ecological civilisation” as a high-productivity industrial strategy instead of as a regulatory burden, and it has achieved over 5pc annual economic growth while creating millions of green jobs.
This transformation has been driven by key sectors like solar panel production and energy efficiency retrofits — renewables alone account for more than 5m jobs. What China demonstrates is that green industries boost productivity through innovation and at the same time advance climate goals, which is a viable model for developing countries that aim for simultaneous economic development and decarbonisation.
Pakistan can transform its climate vulnerability into long-term sustainability.
India is following suit by generating 1m green jobs each year — 500,000 in solar and the rest in sustainable agriculture — where climate-smart farming enhances yields and employs rural youth, discouraging urban migration. Similarly, Vietnam’s green boom, with 800,000 jobs in wind power and ecotourism, has lifted millions from poverty and at the same time curbed emissions.
In India, decentralised solar energy has crossed the million-job threshold, while Vietnam’s rapid energy transition is proof that labour-intensive green infrastructure can outpace the job-creation potential of traditional fossil-fuel-based models by nearly three to one.
Pakistan can emulate these models for economic development by distancing itself from interest groups that focus on jobless growth and prioritising similar labour-intensive sectors: renewables (targeting solar and wind jobs via local assembly), sustainable agriculture (biogas and drip irrigation jobs in rural areas), and resilient infrastructure (flood-proof construction employment opportunities).
These can progressively scale up the job market, enhance productivity through upskilling the labour force, and also address political uncertainty and outward migration as Banga has recommended. Pakistan can transform its climate vulnerability into long-term sustainability if it adopts China’s scale, India’s inclusivity, and Vietnam’s agility, all tailored to local realities.
The path forward lies in identifying the high-potential sectors in the country where green growth and job creation intersect. The obvious starting point for this is the power sector — as noted by Banga, our energy crisis is less about generation and more about the inefficiencies and losses in distribution. Stern’s work highlights that the transition to a decentralised, renewable-heavy grid is inherently labour-intensive, requiring a vast workforce of technicians and operators to instal and maintain solar and wind systems.
This is not just about high-tech manufacturing; it is about the ‘foundational jobs’ that can absorb our youth. Also, agriculture, which employs nearly 40pc of Pakistan’s workforce, is the largest untapped frontier for green jobs. Resilient livelihood options, which are shielded from increasingly erratic monsoon patterns and heatwaves, can be created by scaling up climate-smart agriculture, precision farming, solar-powered irrigation and soil restoration.
Adopting a resilient development model is both pragmatic and necessary for us in a world where the Trump administration indulges in climate scepticism and has withdrawn from international climate finance commitments. While Washington may dismiss climate change as a “hoax”, the melting glaciers in our north and the recurring floods in our south are economic realities that do not wait for the West’s political consensus.
By adopting a decade-long policy of “jobs, jobs, and more jobs” rooted in green growth, Pakistan can bypass the volatility of global climate politics. Stern argues that the “riskiest option of all” is delay. If we wait for international finance that may never come under the current geopolitical shift, we risk locking in high-carbon, inefficient infrastructure that will eventually become “stranded assets” both economically and socially.
Stern places significant stress on “natural capital” as a driver of growth. In our context, it means treating our ecology as a vital economic asset. Large-scale restoration projects, such as the Living Indus initiative, must be seen as essential public works programmes, which can provide immediate rural employment through reforestation and watershed management. These are not merely ‘relief’ jobs but also investments in the infrastructure of the future.
As we navigate the complexities of a fragmented international order, our focus must remain on the domestic “new growth story”. We must recast the PSDP towards green job creation, moving away from the scattered national and provincial investment portfolios that risk adding to stranded assets and monuments of maladaptation. In doing so, we do more than just tackle a global crisis; we build a robust, job-rich economy that stands on its own feet, regardless of the political winds blowing from the North.
The writer is a climate change and sustainable development expert.
